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SHFE Aluminium To Be Well Supported By Low Inventory
2023-9-18
Domestic policies, like those concerning real estate, continue to progress, and measures to stimulate domestic demand are gradually being enacted. Consequently, preferences for macroeconomic risk vary between domestic and international markets. On a fundamental level, the growth rate of domestic aluminum supply is decelerating, import window is open, and the market's overseas aluminum ingot supply is on the rise. Yet, domestic downstream consumption remains robust, with sustained low inventory throughout the week, and no significant shifts in market trading logic for now. In the short term, low inventory and warehouse receipt volumes may disrupt the hedging of future short positions. Near-term contracts are expected to maintain relatively strong fluctuations. In the week ending September 22, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract is anticipated to oscillate at a high level between 18,800-19,700 yuan/mt, while LME aluminum may fluctuate between $2,170-2,190/mt.
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